Kenya Climate Intelligence
Digital Center for Applied Carbon Intelligence (DCACI)
excl. LULUCF · PRIMAP-hist v2.6
7% unconditional + 25% conditional
VCM + CDM since 2011 · $136M revenue
$2.4B flows vs $5.13B needed
Intelligence Insights
AI-powered analysis · Verified Kenya data
Budget-NDC Misalignment: LULUCF
0.7%
of budget
LULUCF has the 2nd largest NDC target (20.8 MtCO2e) but Environment Ministry gets only KES 26.4B — 0.7% of national budget. Forest cover target requires KES 120B+.
Article 6 Transfer Risk
585K
ITMOs pending
Pending LOAs for 585K ITMOs to Switzerland & Japan. Corresponding adjustments would reduce Kenya's reported reductions by ~0.6% of NDC target.
Carbon Revenue Exceeds GCF
$733M
projected
296 VCM projects could yield $733M (2025-2030) at $5.20/credit — nearly double GCF allocations to Kenya ($390M total).
Prioritize Agriculture MRV
47.4%
of emissions
Agriculture is 47.4% of emissions (44.92 MtCO2e) but relies entirely on PRIMAP-hist modeled data. Bottom-up activity data urgently needed for BTR credibility.
GHG Emissions Trajectory
Historical (1990-2022) and NDC projections to 2035
Budget vs NDC Needs
National budget allocation against NDC implementation cost by sector
NDC Sector Progress
Tracking 86.5 MtCO2e mitigation target across 6 sectors by 2030
Sector Emissions Breakdown (2022)
GHG emissions by IPCC sector, excl. LULUCF · Total: 94.25 MtCO2e
Key Climate Events
Second NDC (2031-2035) submitted to UNFCCC
Kenya National Carbon Registry launched
BTR-1 Biennial Transparency Report filed
Article 6 bilateral signed with Sweden
Kasigau REDD+ issuance: 1.8M tCO2e
NCCAP III (2023-2027) implementation begun