NDC Tracker

Track Nationally Determined Contributions progress and mitigation actions

Intelligence Insights

AI-powered analysis · Verified Kenya data

LIVE

Off-Track: Energy Sector

6/12

actions behind

Energy sector needs -48.1 MtCO2e reduction by 2030 but current trajectory shows +3.5% CAGR. 6 of 12 mitigation actions behind schedule.

NDC Progress Tracker

LULUCF Sink Potential

5.1M ha

restored

Reforestation efforts have potential to sequester 20.8 MtCO2e by 2030. Current tree cover restoration at 5.1M ha — needs acceleration to reach 5.3M ha target.

LULUCF Assessment

Focus on Transport Quick Wins

60%

achievable

Transport sector has smallest NDC target (4.7 MtCO2e) but highest cost-effectiveness ratio. BRT Nairobi and fuel economy standards can deliver 60% of target.

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Updated NDC (2020)

-32% by 2030

7% unconditional + 25% conditional, below 143 MtCO2e BAU

Second NDC (2025)

-35% by 2035

Submitted 30 Apr 2025, vs 215 MtCO2e BAU

Mitigation Potential

86.5 MtCO2e

By 2030 across 6 sectors (NCCAP)

Implementation Cost

$62B

2020-2030 (87% intl support needed)

NDC Gap Analysis: Actual vs BAU vs Targets

Kenya's emissions trajectory against NDC reduction commitments (MtCO2e excl. LULUCF)

Budget vs NDC Implementation Needs

Current budget allocation against sector NDC costs (USD billions)

Sector Mitigation Targets (Updated NDC, by 2030)

Energy

48.1 MtCO2e (55.6%)$0.92B / $15.2B94% gap

LULUCF

20.8 MtCO2e (24%)$0.20B / $8.5B98% gap

Agriculture

9.7 MtCO2e (11.2%)$0.49B / $5.8B92% gap

Transport

4.7 MtCO2e (5.4%)$1.68B / $4.2B60% gap

Industrial Processes

2.4 MtCO2e (2.8%)$0.12B / $1.8B93% gap

Waste

0.8 MtCO2e (0.9%)$0.08B / $0.7B89% gap

Total mitigation potential: 86.5 MtCO2e by 2030 | Source: Updated NDC (2020), NCCAP 2018-2022, National Budget FY 2024/25

Key Mitigation Actions

Geothermal Expansion (Olkaria + Menengai)

Energy · 48.1 MtCO2e expected reduction

In Progress

Progress65%

Forest Landscape Restoration (10% cover by 2030)

LULUCF · 20.8 MtCO2e expected reduction

In Progress

Progress33%

Climate-Smart Agriculture (KCSAP + Dairy NAMA)

Agriculture · 9.7 MtCO2e expected reduction

In Progress

Progress40%

Lake Turkana Wind + Solar Mini-Grids

Energy · 4.7 MtCO2e expected reduction

Operational

Progress85%

Clean Cooking (BURN Manufacturing + LPG transition)

Energy · 2.4 MtCO2e expected reduction

In Progress

Progress55%

E-Mobility & BRT (Nairobi, Mombasa)

Transport · 4.7 MtCO2e expected reduction

Planned

Progress12%