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Intelligence Hub

Cross-cutting decision support — emissions, finance, policy alignment

Emissions

94.9

MtCO2e (2022, excl. LULUCF)

+15.3% vs 2021
NDC Gap

-32%

Target by 2030 vs 143 MtCO2e BAU

On watch — 3.5% CAGR growth
Finance Gap

$2.73B

Annual shortfall vs $5.13B need

53% unmet annually
Carbon Market

$136M

VCM revenue (2023), 296 projects

Largest portfolio in Africa

Intelligence Alerts

Budget-NDC Misalignment: LULUCF

Budget × NDC

LULUCF has the 2nd largest NDC target (20.8 MtCO2e) but Ministry of Environment gets only KES 26.4B — just 0.7% of national budget. Forest cover target of 10% by 2030 requires KES 120B+.

Investigate

Article 6 Transfer Risk

Registry × NDC

Pending LOAs for 585K ITMOs to Switzerland and Japan. If authorized, corresponding adjustments reduce Kenya's reported reductions by ~0.6% of NDC target. Verify domestic NDC buffer.

Investigate

Carbon Revenue Opportunity

Registry × Finance

296 VCM projects generated $136M in 2023. Projected 141M tCO2e (2025-2030) at average $5.20/credit could yield $733M — exceeding GCF allocations to Kenya ($390M total).

Investigate

MRV Data Gap: Agriculture

MRV Quality

Agriculture is 47.4% of emissions (44.92 MtCO2e) but relies on PRIMAP-hist modeled data. No bottom-up activity data for enteric fermentation. Weakens BTR credibility.

Investigate

Budget × NDC Alignment (FY 2024/25)

Ministry allocations vs NDC mitigation targets (KES Billions)

Deep Analysis
Energy & PetroleumKES 78.3B / 119.7B (65% climate-tagged)
NDC sector: Energy (48.1 MtCO2e target)
Agriculture & LivestockKES 18.9B / 63.2B (30% climate-tagged)
NDC sector: Agriculture (9.7 MtCO2e target)
Transport & InfrastructureKES 32.7B / 218.3B (15% climate-tagged)
NDC sector: Transport (4.7 MtCO2e target)
Environment & ForestryKES 22.1B / 26.4B (84% climate-tagged)
NDC sector: LULUCF (20.8 MtCO2e target)
IndustrializationKES 3.7B / 14.8B (25% climate-tagged)
NDC sector: IPPU (2.4 MtCO2e target)

Total climate-tagged: KES 358B (~9.1% of KES 3.92T budget) | Source: Kenya National Treasury FY 2024/25, NCCAP III

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